Offshore RMB and Australian dollar rose slightly. Affected by the news, USD/offshore RMB fell 0.1% to 7.2696. AUD/USD rose 0.2% to 0.6381. A foreign exchange trader in Asia said that the small leveraged account that shorted AUD/USD on Wednesday also closed its position. NZD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.5792.The Economic Committee of the Colombian Congress rejected the tax reform proposed by the government to fund the 2025 budget.Australia's 3-year government bond yield increased, and Australia's unemployment rate decreased.
On the morning of December 12, 2024, the People's Court of Tongcheng County, Hubei Province publicly pronounced the case of Liu Gang, the former full-time vice chairman of Chengdu Football Association, for corruption, bribery and unit bribery, and sentenced the defendant Liu Gang to seven years in prison for corruption and fined 400,000 yuan. Sentenced to two years in prison for accepting bribes and fined 200,000 yuan; He was sentenced to one year's imprisonment and fined RMB 100,000 for bribery by a company, and decided to execute eight years' imprisonment and fined RMB 700,000. The property obtained from corruption shall be recovered according to law and returned to the injured unit respectively; The property obtained by taking bribes shall be recovered according to law and turned over to the state treasury.Japan's net foreign investment in Japanese stocks in the week of December 6 was 482.3 billion yen, with the previous value of-607.7 billion yen. Japan's net foreign investment in Japanese bonds in the week of December 6 was 1,006.4 billion yen, with the previous value of 176.1 billion yen. Japan bought a net foreign bond of-640.8 billion yen in the week of December 6, with the previous value of 922.4 billion yen. In the week of December 6th, Japan bought foreign stocks net-954.8 billion yen, with the previous value of-544.7 billion yen.CICC: Inflation in the United States may push the "hawks to cut interest rates". The CICC research report said that inflation data opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates next week, but we also predicted that the "hawks to cut interest rates" will be staged next week, and the Fed may cut the guidance on interest rate cuts in the bitmap. We predict that the new bitmap will show that the total interest rate will be cut twice in 2025 (compared with four times before), and the federal funds rate will be lowered to a neutral level of 3.75% to 4% by the end of the second quarter of next year.
CITIC Securities: The interest rate of the 10-year US bond may show an upward trend due to factors such as monetary policy next year. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, historically, the actual short-term interest rate expectation in the interest rate reduction cycle since 1983 is usually the main driving force for the downward trend of the 10-year US bond interest rate, while the term premium may rise in the interest rate reduction cycle due to factors such as supply and demand, deficit concerns and external shocks. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the short-term 4.0% will be the support level of the 10-year US bond interest rate, and the 10-year US bond interest rate may show an upward trend next year due to factors such as monetary policy and "Trump transaction".Market news: Australia will punish technology giants who don't pay for news.CICC: Inflation in the United States may push the "hawks to cut interest rates". The CICC research report said that inflation data opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates next week, but we also predicted that the "hawks to cut interest rates" will be staged next week, and the Fed may cut the guidance on interest rate cuts in the bitmap. We predict that the new bitmap will show that the total interest rate will be cut twice in 2025 (compared with four times before), and the federal funds rate will be lowered to a neutral level of 3.75% to 4% by the end of the second quarter of next year.